If 18 is the magic number....... (2024)

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If 18 is the magic number.......

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Post: #41

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

I gathered some data when the Big 12 was considering expansion. These are the final 11 + Memphis. I haven't updated this since that time.

Full time Attendance Basketball Athletic
undergrads 5 year 1 year attendance 2014 Revenues (000)
BYU 24,499 59,665 58,532 15,875 59,032
Memphis 12,323 30,128 43,802 16,121 41,421
Cincinnati 20,578 31,828 37,096 8,567 42,862
Houston 23,595 29,105 33,980 3,783 45,438
UCF 36,373 35,770 30,065 5,298 51,871
Uconn 17,524 31,591 28,224 10,134 72,156
USF 23,434 36,131 26,578 4,406 46,986
Air Force 4,111 30,831 26,026 2,238
Colorado St. 20,132 22,242 24,917 4,186 38,451
Tulane 6,214 21,100 22,930 1,677 41,004
SMU 6,189 20,696 21,043 5,653 55,349
Rice 3,843 19,281 19,339 1,624 37,693

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 12:57 AM by bullet.)

01-20-2019 12:53 AM
bullet If 18 is the magic number....... (7)
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Post: #42

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Doesn't format well, but this is weeks ranked in AP poll, weeks ranked in top 10 and # of final top 10s.
First it is for the whole AP poll and then 1996-2015. So BYU has been ranked 242 weeks, ranked in the top 10 56 weeks and ranked in the final top 10 3 times. From 1996-2015 they were ranked 94 weeks, top 10 16 weeks and once in the final top 10.

EADA database EADA database EADA database
as of 7/27/16 ranked in AP ranked 1-10 final top 10 1996-2015
BYU 242 56 3 94 16 1
USF 26 4 - 26 4 -
UCF 11 1 1 11 1 1
Cincinnati 41 12 1 36 12 1
Uconn 6 - - 6 - -
Memphis 6 - - 6 - -
Houston 184 48 7 32 3 1
Tulane 59 17 2 11 3 1
SMU 161 73 6 - - -
Rice 70 17 4 - - -
Air Force 78 20 2 18 - -
Colorado St. 43 5 - 31 - -

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 12:56 AM by bullet.)

01-20-2019 12:55 AM
bullet If 18 is the magic number....... (11)
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Post: #43

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

And academic rankings. World University, ARWU rankings and US News & World Report
WUR 2016 ARWU 2016 USNWR
BYU 435 401-500 62
Memphis 792 NR >200
Cincinnati 165 201-300 129
Houston 233 201-300 189
UCF 396 401-500 173
Uconn 225 301-400 58
USF 164 201-300 161
Air Force NR NR NLA 32
Colorado St. 282 201-300 129
Tulane 288 NR 54
SMU 142 NR 56
Rice 114 72 15

01-20-2019 01:00 AM
Fighting Muskie If 18 is the magic number....... (15)
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Post: #44

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

The Pac 12 membership standards make it next to impossible for that league to expand. Iowa St, Kansas, Texas, and Rice are really the only ones up to snuff academically but Texas is the only one that improves their slumping football. They've expressed willingness to accomodate "companion" schools but they are going to have to hook Texas to entertain the notion of bringing in schools who aren't AAU.

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 08:59 AM by Fighting Muskie.)

01-20-2019 08:57 AM
colohank If 18 is the magic number....... (19)
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Post: #45

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......
(05-14-2017 02:32 AM)DavidSt Wrote:
(05-14-2017 01:34 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: The "magic number" remains 12. Expansion to 14 is because the specific schools available offered a sufficient increase in value to justify the expansion, not because of a seismic shift in the "magic number". The threshold value that a 15th and 16th adds has to be greater again. And the threshold value that a 17th & 18th adds has to be still greater.

Big 10's Delany was thinking of going to 22 teams.

Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Kansas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Texas

That would give them up to 22 teams.

SEC would grab NC State and Virginia Tech. Could they grab Cincinnati since they are in a neighboring State? West Virginia could be in the mix for the SEC because of Virginia Tech.

But, there seems to be the need for 4 mega conference with 80 teams to make 20 in a conference. Who would they take that are the best names in football and basketball?

BYU, Boise State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Villanova all have both.

Eastern Washington, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, James Madison, Jacksonville State, Old Dominion, Toledo, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Illinois State, Chattanooga, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Cincinnati, Navy, Air Force and some other are good at football only.

To avoid anti-trust lawsuits? The mega conference must take schools in states not represented in an FBS P5 conference that are public. Mass., Delaware, Idaho, Dakotas, Rhode Island, Conn., Montana, and several other states do not have a representative at all.

That is one of the reasons why Boise State keeps coming up as a candidate for the PAC 12. Even if the academics are not up there, they do bring a good football and men's basketball team that could be a boast for the PAC 12. Even if the PAC 12 network is hurting, Boise State is a hit on ESPN. Having hot teams like Boise State, Air Force and Houston in the PAC 12 could bring more competition to them which could raise the ratings for the network.

???

01-20-2019 09:45 AM
chargeradio If 18 is the magic number....... (23)
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Post: #46

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

If you go the purely defensive route to avoid an anti-trust suit:

B1G adds California, UCLA, Colorado, Arizona State
SEC adds Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State
ACC adds Stanford, USC, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Notre Dame as a full member
The Big 12 adds Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Boise State, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, UMass, UConn, and Cincinnati

B1G West - California, UCLA, Colorado, Arizona State, Nebraska, Iowa
B1G Central - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue
B1G East - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers

SEC West - Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU
SEC Central - Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
SEC East - Kentucky, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

ACC Continental - USC, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, Duke
ACC Atlantic - Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest
ACC Coastal - Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Virginia, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

XVIII West - Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Boise State, UNLV, Wyoming
XVIII South - New Mexico, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas
XVII North - Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, UMass, UConn, Cincinnati

01-20-2019 10:37 AM
If 18 is the magic number....... (25)
Wolfman If 18 is the magic number....... (28)
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Post: #47

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Most of these proposals keep the existing B1G, SEC, ACC, and P12 intact while splitting up the B12 and/or ACC. Those are the 2 most vulnerable conferences but I don't see both splitting. There might be a scenario where the B12 splits an some ACC teams see that as an opportunity to jump to another conference.

CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt teams are not in a position to move up.

BYU and ND are the only independents that appeal to the P5 but both have issues.

The AAC and MW are the only 2 conferences with potential candidates.

01-20-2019 10:39 AM
bluesox If 18 is the magic number....... (33)
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Post: #48

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

A magic number can be created if a rule is made that makes a number magic. 12 became a magic number because it was ruled you needed 12 to have a conference title game. If a rule is created that 15,16 or 18 can have a semifinal than a title game for conferences that number will be the new magic number. I like the big 10 jumping to 40, 4 divisions of 10 and the sec jumping to 24. Each league has has 2 game playoff and winners meet in title game.

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 10:54 AM by bluesox.)

01-20-2019 10:49 AM
Nerdlinger If 18 is the magic number....... (37)
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Post: #49

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Here's my semi-plausible P4x18:

ACC
East: Boston College, Miami-FL, Navy* (Patriot), Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Central: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Wake Forest, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, SMU
Non-FB: Wichita State

Big Ten
East: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
Central: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Pac-18
East: Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Central: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah
West: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State

SEC
East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

* = football only (primary conference)

Connecticut has dropped football and rejoined the Big East.

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 12:38 PM by Nerdlinger.)

01-20-2019 12:35 PM
USM@FTL If 18 is the magic number....... (41)
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Post: #50

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Precisely. 5 and 6 teams are the best size for a division. 3 or 4 divisions. You can preserve old rivalries and discover new ones.

Getting that semifinal round is everything to this scenario, but giving relief to a conference that's grown large seems within reason. Another round, for 8 teams, would be ludicrous.

Making 18, and thereby 24, viable, could promote restructuring and consolidation.

01-20-2019 01:03 PM
JRsec If 18 is the magic number....... (46)
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Post: #51

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......
(01-20-2019 01:03 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: Precisely. 5 and 6 teams are the best size for a division. 3 or 4 divisions. You can preserve old rivalries and discover new ones.

Getting that semifinal round is everything to this scenario, but giving relief to a conference that's grown large seems within reason. Another round, for 8 teams, would be ludicrous.

Making 18, and thereby 24, viable, could promote restructuring and consolidation.

That sir is what most posters on this topic, especially G5 posters, fail to grasp. Create a malleable structure and where 18 exist today there is room more when their addition makes it profitable to do so. The debate should not really ever be about numbers. The debate should be about structure. If conferences move to semi finals that money remains wholly with the conference. Therefore if a conference profits from a semi final it will happen. If it does not it won't.

The networks invest in the national playoffs. 4 guarantees a profit right now. 8 would not. You are more than doubling production costs for 4 less compelling games.

Permit the P5 to restructure to a P4 and in a format that would permit growth, and then access to the championship series becomes a matter of play on the field. If growing those 4 conferences makes the conferences more profitable then it will happen.

Growth to 4 conferences of 18 gives 7 of the best G5's a promotion now. That's a much easier path to promotion than what currently exists and much more sure of a way to guarantee access to the playoffs than expanding the CFP to a number of games the networks couldn't really justify financially. Would they turn a profit? Probably. Would that profit versus overhead be as high as with just 3 games and 4 teams? No.

01-20-2019 02:45 PM
ArQ If 18 is the magic number....... (50)
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Post: #52

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......
(05-14-2017 02:32 AM)DavidSt Wrote:
(05-14-2017 01:34 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: The "magic number" remains 12. Expansion to 14 is because the specific schools available offered a sufficient increase in value to justify the expansion, not because of a seismic shift in the "magic number". The threshold value that a 15th and 16th adds has to be greater again. And the threshold value that a 17th & 18th adds has to be still greater.

Big 10's Delany was thinking of going to 22 teams.

Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Kansas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Texas

That would give them up to 22 teams.

Your list is wrong. Delany wants to add the following schools to 22.

Clemson
North Carolina
Florida
LSU
Alabama
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas

01-20-2019 02:58 PM
ArQ If 18 is the magic number....... (54)
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Post: #53

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......
(01-20-2019 02:58 PM)ArQ Wrote:
(05-14-2017 02:32 AM)DavidSt Wrote:
(05-14-2017 01:34 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: The "magic number" remains 12. Expansion to 14 is because the specific schools available offered a sufficient increase in value to justify the expansion, not because of a seismic shift in the "magic number". The threshold value that a 15th and 16th adds has to be greater again. And the threshold value that a 17th & 18th adds has to be still greater.

Big 10's Delany was thinking of going to 22 teams.

Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Kansas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Texas

That would give them up to 22 teams.


Your list is wrong. Delany wants to add the following schools to 22.

Clemson
North Carolina
Florida
LSU
Alabama
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas

B1G Inner Circle Division:

Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Illinois
Purdue
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State

B1G Outlander Division:

Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
LSU
Alabama
Florida
Clemson
UNC
Maryland
Rutgers

01-20-2019 03:07 PM
Fighting Muskie If 18 is the magic number....... (58)
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Post: #54

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

The Big Ten adds Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa St:

Big Ten West: Okla, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St, Iowa, Nebraska
Big Ten Central: Wisconsin, Minnesota, N'western, Illinois, Mich St, Mich
Big Ten East: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

Each team plays their 5 division mates annually and then 2 teams from each of the other divisions on a rotating basis. Ohio St-Mich is the lone protected crossover.

01-20-2019 03:22 PM
DavidSt If 18 is the magic number....... (62)
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Post: #55

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Structure P4 into 4 pods of 6 which makes 24 teams in a conference. 18 would not work for a perfect structure. You would get uneven teams in a pod. The 12th game would the semi-finals of the conference play. 4 teams in the semis and the 13th would be the championship game for the conference between the 2 winners of the semis. You get 5 round robin games plus 5 cross pod games and 1 OOC game.

01-20-2019 04:32 PM
If 18 is the magic number....... (64)
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Post: #56

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

The magic number is 15 and 18 based on three divisions within a conference.

Who has 15 and who has 18 is constrained in part by geography.

At 15 the only ACC addition is ND.
At 18 the ACC additions would be ND, and two from the B12 and could be Texas, West Va, TCU, and/or perhaps Navy, Cincy, Houston

At 15 the only B10 addition is Oklahoma.
At 18 the B10 has to add Kansas, Iowa State, and a school in Texas, or Colorado.

At 15 the P12 adds Texas, OU, and Kansas

At 15 the SEC adds Oklahoma.
At 18 the SEC adds three more from the B12 and perhaps swaps with the ACC.

Some of these outcomes are mutually exclusive.

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 05:58 PM by Statefan.)

01-20-2019 05:53 PM
esayem If 18 is the magic number....... (70)
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Post: #57

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Until there is a rule that states a CCG can feature teams from 2/3 divisions within a conference, this conversation is fantasy. What’s more likely, and actually being talked about, is scrapping divisions totally.

18 isn’t the magic number. 14 and an 8 game schedule (possibly 15 and a 9 game schedule) without divisions is ideal and every conference should have that opportunity.

01-20-2019 06:13 PM
Fighting Muskie If 18 is the magic number....... (75)
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Post: #58

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

The only way I like 18 (or 15) is if there are conference semi finals with 3 division winners and a wild card. Get the NCAA to legislate it and now we have something.

01-20-2019 06:46 PM
esayem If 18 is the magic number....... (79)
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Post: #59

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......
(01-20-2019 06:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: The only way I like 18 (or 15) is if there are conference semi finals with 3 division winners and a wild card. Get the NCAA to legislate it and now we have something.

How is that going to work when there isn’t even enough of a push to expand the playoffs at a national level yet? More rematches is the worst idea, and now they’re going to expand the regular season instead? Tall tales, my friends. Creative, albeit unrealistic.

(This post was last modified: 01-20-2019 06:56 PM by esayem.)

01-20-2019 06:55 PM
ChrisLords If 18 is the magic number....... (84)
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Post: #60

RE: If 18 is the magic number.......

Here's a 3x24 model

B1G - Football 5-3-1 divisional format
West plays Central 3 times. Plays 1 team from East and South once every 12 years
Central plays West 3 times. Plays 1 team from East and South once every 12 years
East plays South 3 times. Plays 1 team from West and Central once every 12 years
South plays East 3 times. Plays 1 team from West and Central once every 12 years
Basketball -
West and Central play home and away in division and once in each others division plus 4 other games 2 against the East and 2 against the South for 20 games.
East and South play home and away in division and once in each others division plus 4 other games 2 against the West and 2 against the Central for 20 games.
-----
East
-----
Boston College
Maryland
Rutgers
Syracuse
Virginia
Virginia Tech

South
-----
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
North Carolina

Central
-----
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue

West
-----
Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin

SEC - 8 game conference schedule. 5-1-1-1
-----
East
-----
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Tennessee

South
-----
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt

South West
-----
Arkansas
Kansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

West
-----
California
Oregon
Southern California
Stanford
UCLA
Washington

Big 24 - Football 5-3-1 divisional format
West plays South West 3 times. Plays 1 team from East and South once every 12 years
South West plays West 3 times. Plays 1 team from East and South once every 12 years
East plays South 3 times. Plays 1 team from West and South West once every 12 years
South plays East 3 times. Plays 1 team from West and South West once every 12 years
Basketball
BYU and ND Non-football play in the East.
West and South West play home and away in division and once in each others division plus 2 other games one against the East and one against the South for 18 games.
East and South play home and away in division and once in each others division plus 2 other games one against the West and one against the South West for 18 games.
-----
East
-----
Army - football only
Connecticut
Navy - football only
Pittsburgh
Temple
West Virginia

South
-----
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
South Florida
Wake Forest

South West
-----
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Christian
Texas Tech

West
-----
Arizona State
Colorado
Oregon state
San Diego State
Utah
Washington State

Non-football
-----
BYU
Notre Dame

AAC
-----
North
-----
Appalachian State
ECU
James Madison
Marshall
ODU
UNC-Charlotte

South
-----
Baylor
Rice
SMU
Southern Mississippi
Tulane
Tulsa

Non-football
-----
VCU
Wichita

MWC - 8 conference games
-----
Mountain
-----
Air Force
Colorado State
Hawaii - football only
New Mexico
Utah State
Wyoming

West
-----
Arizona
Boise State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
San Jose State

Non-football
-----
Gonzaga

01-20-2019 08:29 PM

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If 18 is the magic number....... (2024)

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