Why we could know the future of Realignment in just a few months (2024)

Post: #1

With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Post: #2

If the Big Ten takes two of the four they could opt for Stanford (or Cal, I suppose) as one of the two. Tough break for whoever is left behind as the lone ACC school in California.

Anyways, like you I think that spots are very limited for the time being and the ACC should survive mostly intact.

Post: #3

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

Post: #4

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

They would have been if they had taken the $30M renewal ESPN had offered

Post: #5

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

They could have recovered if they had acted faster. Imagine if two weeks after the UCLA/USC announcement SDSU/SMU were announced? Would at least get them into a much more feasible situation.

They also had Kliavkoff which is a hurdle the ACC fortunately won't have to be dealing with.

Post: #6

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

The ACC has six more members than the PAC-12 did, nearly enough to form a second conference all on their own. And, due to the extremely poor state of western football there was only a single real candidate available to backfill, while the ACC has at least three acceptable candidates east of the Great Plains, 4 if you count Memphis.

Post: #7

I think 4 ACC schools are getting P2 sexy eyes: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, and Notre Dame.
Another grouping is probably getting DMs from the either or both of the P2. This probably includes: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
There could be a couple getting head nods from the B1G: Pittsburgh and Stanford.
Maybe one getting reluctant finger-guns from the SEC: Louisville.
The rest are sitting at a table in the back of the cafeteria (along with several of the above): Boston College, California, SMU, Syracuse, and Wake Forest.

The XII table is full of those kids in school that were well known and good at stuff but not at the top of the high school food chain: all of XII.
> With one exception - the kid everyone knows will be something someday soon: Kansas.

Then there's the cool freshmen who aren't on varsity (yet?) but everyone knows who they: Connecticut, Memphis, San Diego St, South Florida, and Tulane.
There's also the kids who always get invited to everything because it would seem wrong not to have them there: Air Force, Army, and Navy.
The others are at their tables looking over to the P2/M2 but pretending they love exactly where they are with they are with: (rest of) AAC, MAC, (rest of) MWC, and SBC.

Finally, there's the table of misfits who sit together to not be alone: CUSA.

Post: #8

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

The only reason the ACC is paying more is the ACCN, which will show declining revenues. I don't expect the distributions between the two conferences to be much different, so your belief that schools won't find it worth it to switch from ACC to Big 12 (other than the 3 outliers) seems correct, but your assumption in bold is not.

Post: #9

(06-03-2024 12:03 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

They would have been if they had taken the $30M renewal ESPN had offered

There was zero chance Oregon and Washington were signing with the Pac-12 for that number or anything close to it.

It's no accident when it came time to fish or cut bait wrt to the new Pac-12 media rights deal last summer, the B1G's offer — one with far more upside than anything Klinkoff could deliver— "suddenly" became available.

We'll start hearing the ACC's death rattle the moment FSU and Clemson announce their leaving

(This post was last modified: 06-03-2024 01:11 PM by PeteTheChop.)

Post: #10

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

I think that ESPN is working with the ACC behind the scenes to give the ACC more money, and let FSU and Clemson move to the SEC. Could it be enough to move USF and Memphis in for a small price, but more than what they are getting for they are getting in the AAC? They could work on getting UNC and NC State move to the SEC, and maybe a Virginia/Virginia Tech. That would free up to offer Kansas, Oklahoma State, Houston, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State and Tulane to the ACC. The Big 12 have to backfill from MWC and AAC. I have a feeling that ESPN wants to make BY the biggest fool for trying to go after ESPN's property.

Post: #11

(06-03-2024 12:03 PM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

They could have recovered if they had acted faster. Imagine if two weeks after the UCLA/USC announcement SDSU/SMU were announced? Would at least get them into a much more feasible situation.

They also had Kliavkoff which is a hurdle the ACC fortunately won't have to be dealing with.

They could have survived if they got Oklahoma and Texas before that time. Imagine the PAC 12 that have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech which would have left Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor left of the Big 12.

Post: #12

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

I mean, it's still around, right? (ducks)

But seriously, the Pac 12 didn't have a GoR and pretty good media rights agreement that may or may not hold until 2036, and they also didn't have a PACN partnered with ESPN to serve as an enticing lure to the Mothership. The ACC has the benefit of seeing up close and personal exactly what happened to the Pac and why it happened. Also, I'd take Phillips, or any randomly chosen person off the street, over Kliavkoff to handle my business in a crisis. None of that can save the Pac if ESPN doesn't renew or the SEC decides to swallow up half the ACC, but there are a whole lot scenarios in which they're crucial to the ACC.

Post: #13

(06-03-2024 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

The only reason the ACC is paying more is the ACCN, which will show declining revenues. I don't expect the distributions between the two conferences to be much different, so your belief that schools won't find it worth it to switch from ACC to Big 12 (other than the 3 outliers) seems correct, but your assumption in bold is not.

Remember that the ACC legacy schools are getting $3-4m each from the Calford SMU moves and also $1.6m more from the CFP. Tack on presumably-large GoR and exit fees and the dilution the legacy Big 12 schools suffered from adding the 4c (Iowa State's AD called it $7m a year), and "parity" starts looking more like a $10m+ delta.

Post: #14

I am hoping Tobacco Rd and UVa head over to the SEC. ESPN likes that Bball quadfecta. They don't have to come in at full shares initially. It's whatever ESPN is willing to pay on top of what those schools would make staying the course.

SEC: UNC NCSU Duke UVa (Kansas gets left out unless they win multiple CFP games)
B1G: FSU Clemson VaTech Miami (latter two partial shares)
Big 12: UL Pitt USF GaTech

Big East/ACC:

FB: WF, BC, 'Cuse, Furd, Cal, SMU, Tulane, Rice, UConn Navy, Army, AFA (FO) (ND plays 2 flex games and Furd, three games total)

Olympics: Nova, SJU, GTown, SH, ND

(This post was last modified: 06-03-2024 01:07 PM by RUScarlets.)

Post: #15

(06-03-2024 12:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote: I think 4 ACC schools are getting P2 sexy eyes: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, and Notre Dame.
Another grouping is probably getting DMs from the either or both of the P2. This probably includes: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
There could be a couple getting head nods from the B1G: Pittsburgh and Stanford.
Maybe one getting reluctant finger-guns from the SEC: Louisville.
The rest are sitting at a table in the back of the cafeteria (along with several of the above): Boston College, California, SMU, Syracuse, and Wake Forest.

The XII table is full of those kids in school that were well known and good at stuff but not at the top of the high school food chain: all of XII.
> With one exception - the kid everyone knows will be something someday soon: Kansas.

Then there's the cool freshmen who aren't on varsity (yet?) but everyone knows who they: Connecticut, Memphis, San Diego St, South Florida, and Tulane.
There's also the kids who always get invited to everything because it would seem wrong not to have them there: Air Force, Army, and Navy.
The others are at their tables looking over to the P2/M2 but pretending they love exactly where they are with they are with: (rest of) AAC, MAC, (rest of) MWC, and SBC.

Finally, there's the table of misfits who sit together to not be alone: CUSA.

Notre Dame will already be making as much money as the B1G and SEC are projected to make when their new NBC contract kicks in....PLUS they get to continue to say that they are independent in football.
As long as the ACC is standing, Notre Dame has options.

(This post was last modified: 06-03-2024 01:16 PM by XLance.)

Post: #16

(06-03-2024 12:19 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 12:03 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: 2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Was the Pac-12 fine when USC and UCLA left?

They would have been if they had taken the $30M renewal ESPN had offered

There was zero chance Oregon and Washington were signing for that number or anything close to it.

It's no accident when it came time to fish or cut bait wrt to the new Pac-12 media rights deal last summer, the B1G's offer — one with far more upside than anything Klinkoff could deliver— "suddenly" became available.

We'll start hearing the ACC's death rattle the moment FSU and Clemson announce their leaving

Warren really did a number on the Pac. If he'd just added UW/UO up front, then the 8 leftover Pac and 12 Big 12 schools might have all just merged and signed one deal with ESPN.

Post: #17

(06-03-2024 01:16 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: Warren really did a number on the Pac. If he'd just added UW/UO up front, then the 8 leftover Pac and 12 Big 12 schools might have all just merged and signed one deal with ESPN.

Except the Bay Area schools and the Big XII weren't feeling one another (likely for the various reasons we suspect)

Also fair to surmise OSU+WSU weren't in the plans for an expansion to 20 by Yappy

Post: #18

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

Not sure that I understand your point. Settlements to the ACC lawsuits are unlikely during the next eight months. Phillips’ priority is now the “look-in” negotiations with ESPN. Regardless of the naive Leon County judge’s demand for immediate mediation, neither party truly benefits from negotiating without financial parameters. At this point in time, FSU will demand to leave for pennies-on-the-dollar, while the ACC seeks a billion…it’s mainly emotional arguments.

FSU, Clemson and UNC will be better-off knowing the results of the “look-in” negotiations between ESPN & the ACC. These negotiations have a drop-dead date of February 2025. Not to put unrealistic pressure on ESPN or Phillips, but they may tailor payouts via various win-win solutions. FSU/Clemson/UNC/other ACC schools will have opportunities to decline or veto various ideas. The lawsuits will proceed, but the real urgency and importance won’t be known until after February 2025…then it’ll be possible that the judicial process is the best or only solution.

Regardless, February 2025 is now the next major milestone that will generate realignment discussions.

(This post was last modified: 06-03-2024 01:42 PM by Wahoowa84.)

Post: #19

February 2025 is the key date. Watch the ACC stall FSU and Clemson exit talks at least 9 months to get past ESPN locking in the contract thru 2036. They have zero incentive to let them leave prior to that event, or even negotiate. Hence, they are not talking and instead playing a slow and slower dance ("four corners" phrase used by McMurphy to describe it).

If the ACC stalls that long and puts a super high exit fee on FSU and Clemson, it likely stalls the conga line for a few years. But once UNC starts to move, Miami, Duke and Virginia will start their motors. It's really a question of who can get the finances together to leave. UNC and UVa also have political roadblocks and junior partners tethered who have to be loosened (they don't bring enough value to justify little brother tagging along, similar to Oklahoma).

I still think selectivity means the first two are FSU and Clemson, probably to the B1G, followed later by UNC and either Virginia if they can get free, or else a private school like Duke or Miami, who if they decide to get free can get free (these guys dwarf SMU mad money, but not Stanford mad money). Eventually Notre Dame will move bringing somebody along wherever they go (B1G, so maybe Stanford or if not, then Miami). The real collapse happens if the Big 12 starts to pick up some pieces, like say Louisville, VT, Pitt or NC State whom the P2 are not interested in but bring solid value to the Big 12. Pity anyone left behind if that happens.

Personally, I bet the ACC is shaken seriously this decade, but holds together in diluted form to 2036.

Post: #20

(06-03-2024 12:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:

(06-03-2024 12:15 PM)bullet Wrote:

(06-03-2024 11:40 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: With Lawsuits and Conga Lines flying all over the place, I've spent a lot of time thinking about recently (as have most of you) about the ACC. What do we know about the current state of the Conference?

FSU and Clemson are suing to leave
UNC is clamoring for more money but their BoT and Legislature might prove difficult if they try to leave
Everyone else voted to add 3 new and presumably very pro-ACC members a few months ago
ESPN decision is looming in Feb 2025

While it's not a given, it's clear that only 3 schools are getting sexy eyes from the P2, and only 2 of those schools have all their ducks in a row to actually leave, and their lawsuits could take years to wind their way through the court system. Assuming this "smaller P2 move", ie 2-4 schools, comes to fruition, then it's extremely unlikely that the Big 12 will be able to offer more money than the ACC to legacy ACC members in even a single year between now and 2036. Are Louisville and VT going to pay ~ $100m to leave the ACC and make $5-10m less per year for a decade, just so they can take longer flights to Conference road games? Who cares if UNC gets a retention bonus, they're never going to dominate the ACC in football, anyway.

Ok, so assuming the above, and only 2-4 schools skip town, the real decision will come in Feb 2025. I have no inside information at all about whether ESPN is planning to renew, renegotiate, or walk away completely from the ACC. I believe that the ACCN is a very strong incentive for them to renew, but that largely depends upon how long they expect it to keep filling their coffers. Another 3 years? Another 10? More? A 16 team ACC with only FSU and Clemson departing is still worth it for ESPN, but what if 2 others leave? If those 2 others are UNC and VT, then the ACC is still in Florida, NC and Virginia, so oddly the impact on the ACCN even with 4 departures would be limited. If the 4th is Miami instead of VT, then the ACC could just backfill with USF, again, problem solved, and ESPN "likely" chooses to either renew or renegotiate on terms that are good-enough to keep the ACC together.

So:

2 schools leave: ACC is fine
4 schools leave: ACC "probably fine" but not certain
5+ schools leave: Incipient Conga Line

The only reason the ACC is paying more is the ACCN, which will show declining revenues. I don't expect the distributions between the two conferences to be much different, so your belief that schools won't find it worth it to switch from ACC to Big 12 (other than the 3 outliers) seems correct, but your assumption in bold is not.

Remember that the ACC legacy schools are getting $3-4m each from the Calford SMU moves and also $1.6m more from the CFP. Tack on presumably-large GoR and exit fees and the dilution the legacy Big 12 schools suffered from adding the 4c (Iowa State's AD called it $7m a year), and "parity" starts looking more like a $10m+ delta.

The ACC is getting $17.1 million for 17 schools for the CFP and the Big 12 $14.7 million for 16 schools. (edit-correction-that is 17.1% vs. 14.7% which comes to about a 1 million difference per school) That difference is negligible. The Big 12 took dilution for adding the 4 in 2023. It isn't clear whether or not there is any reduction from the $31.7 million deal they signed before the 4C entered. At $31.7 million fixed and escalating, the Big 12 deal is significantly more than the fixed ACC deal tier I deal. The ACC has the variable ACCN revenues in addition which are probably putting them a little ahead of the $31.7 million. But that will decline over time. And the Big 12 will have a new deal in 2031. It may well be $3-$4 million that the 3 new members are giving to the legacy members, but I haven't seen anyone calculate that.

(This post was last modified: 06-05-2024 09:47 AM by bullet.)